AFC Championship Match-Up: Baltimore @ New England

January 22nd, 3:00 pm EST, CBS

“Opportunity Knocks”

The Ravens have an opportunity to go to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis. There is one thing in there way and that is quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots–which will not be an easy task. There would be nothing sweeter for the Ravens to gain an opportunity to try to win another Championship for Ray Lewis and gain one for veterans like Ed Reed.  But first the task at hand; the Ravens head into a tough place to play and have a tough quarterback to stop. It will take an effort such like the effort put forth in week one where the Ravens came out swinging and never looked back.

Opponent Preview: It’s no secret the Patriots win by passing the ball, the unit ranked 2nd overall in passing yards (317.8) in the regular season. The key for the Ravens defense will be pressure on quarterback Tom Brady. The unit will also have to find a way to contain the Patriots athletic tightends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots defense is opportunistic with 23 total interceptions, 40 sacks (regular season). The Patriots secondary has played better down the stretch, overall though the unit ended the regular season ranked 31st in passing yard (293.9). The defense ranks 17th (117.1) versus the run. That means, in addition to establishing the run game with Ray Rice,  QB Joe Flacco has to take his shots in this match-up.

CHALK IT UP:

QB Tom Brady vs. Ravens Pressure: Brady threw for 5235 yards (39 TD’s, 12 INT’s). The Ravens defense had 48 sacks in the regular season and will have to get pressure on Brady to disrupt his timing.  Key match-up: OLB Terrell Suggs vs. LT Matt Light.

TE Rob Gronkowski vs. Ravens Coverage:  A huge success for the Patriots offense has been their tightends. Rob Gronkowski had a record 99 receptions including 17 TD’s in the regular season. There is no way the Ravens can put a linebacker on Gronkowski, rather safety Bernard Pollard or a corner like Jimmy Smith might be asked to cover. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Ravens go with an extra safety or corner covering the Patriots tightends. Aaron Hernandez also had a big year with 79 receptions and been lined up as a running back with good results.

DT Vince Wilfork vs. Ravens O-line: Wilfork lines up a different spots on the defensive line and can be a disruptive force. The interior of the Ravens offensive line must account Wilfork. Last Sunday Houston won the battle upfront and it made for a rough go for both the running game and pass protection. The Ravens offensive line must win the battle upfront.

LB Rob Ninkovick/ILB Jerod Mayo vs. RB Ray Rice: One player who has come on strong this season is linebacker Rob Ninkovick; he is strong against the run diagnosing plays and can rush the passer with 6.5 sacks.  ILB Jerod Mayo might have to cover Rice in open space, Rice must win the on-on-one match-up’s.

CAN’T LOSE TRACK OF:

Receiver Wes Welker: While the Patriots tightends are dangerous, the unit can’t lose track of receiver Wes Welker, he led the team with 122 receptions.

Cornerback Kyle Arrington (7 interceptions): Flacco must avoid forcing the ball in tight coverage.

WHO MAKES THE HIGHLIGHT FILM:

 Jonathan Scruggs: Ray Rice

“It may seem overly obvious, but the key to the Ravens beating the Bradys on Sunday is to keep Tom Terrific off the field. That starts with Ray Rice averaging more than the paltry 2.9 yards per carry he had against the Texans. Ray needs to get his wheels going and start grinding out first downs. Build off of that and the Ravens can book a trip to Indianapolis.”

Matt Jergensen: Terrell Suggs

“One of the keys to a victory is being able to pressure Tom Brady. Suggs was quiet last Sunday against the Texans. Let’s hope he saved something for this weekend.”

Gene Winner: Torrey Smith

“Yes, the veterans always make plays in big games. But, it just seems like good things happen with Torrey Smith in big games too.”

Ben Zinman: Joe Flacco

Previous Match-Up’s:

Baltimore defeated New England in the playoffs on the road after the 2009 season, but its overall record against the Patriots is 1-6 – including a 27-24 defeat in 2007 in Baltimore, a 27-21 loss in New England in 2009 and a 23-20 setback in overtime last season.