Shop for Baltimore Ravens gear at Fanatics.com

Super Bowl LII Preview

Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) vs. New England Patriots (13-3)

Sunday, February 4, 2018 at 6:30 PM ET

U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

TV: NBC

Line: Patriots -4.5

Total: 48

The Philadelphia Eagles clash with the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII next Sunday. The Eagles crushed the Vikings 38-7 in Philadelphia in a game that they trailed 7-0 early on while the Patriots came from behind to beat the Jaguars 24-20 in Foxborough.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, New England has a 52.8% chance to win (through Wednesday). TeamRankings predicts that the Patriots will cover -4.5 while numberFire likes the Eagles +4.5.

Injury Report

Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz, QB (ACL and LCL), Injury Reserve

New England Patriots

Malcolm Butler, CB (illness), Questionable

Deatrich Wise, DE (concussion), Questionable

Rob Gronkowski, TE (concussion), Questionable

Key Stats of the Philadelphia Eagles:

Points per game 28.6

Total Yards 365.8

Passing Yards 233.6

Rushing Yards 132.2

3rd down conversion percentage 41.7

Points allowed 18.4

Players to watch:

Zach Ertz (824 receiving yards, 74 receptions, eight touchdowns)

Alshon Jeffery (789 receiving yards, 57 receptions, nine touchdowns)

LeGarrette Blount (766 rushing yards, 173 carries, two touchdowns) 

Key Stats of the New England Patriots:

Points per game 28.6

Total Yards 394.2

Passing Yards 276.1

Rushing Yards 118.1

3rd down conversion percentage 40.6

Points allowed 18.5

Players to watch:

Tom Brady (4,577 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, QBR 70.2)

Dion Lewis 896 rushing yards, 180 carries, six touchdowns)

Rob Gronkowski (1,084 receiving yards, 69 receptions, eight touchdowns)

Super Bowl LII Trends:

The Philadelphia Eagles are:

5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS win 4-1 ATS in their last games after a straight up win of more than 14 points

The New England Patriots are:

4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

6-1 ATS in their last seven games on synthetic turf

5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games

Over/Under Trends:

The Over is 12-2 in Philadelphia’s last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

The Under is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game

The Under is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last five games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

The Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game

The Over is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 playoff games

Head-to-head Trends:

The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings
The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings

The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings

As of Wednesday evening, the Eagles are receiving 56 percent of all point spread bets. The line for the Patriots opened at -6 and now they’re favored by 4.5 points.

The Eagles are clearly the popular choice, so it’s easy to understand why the line has gone down. It’s surprising that the Patriots are not the pick here, it seems like an easy bet but I think that the public has it right.

Looking at the money lines, the smart play is the Patriots at -208. The Eagles are the popular point spread bet but that doesn’t mean that 56 percent of their backers think they will win.

If Carson Wentz was under center for the Eagles in this game, I could see them winning. Nick Foles has done more than what’s been asked of him, taking them to this point and he is no rookie, but playing in a Super Bowl can be intimidating and the Patriots have way more experience at a grand stage like this.

I’m taking the Eagles to cover as one of my Superbowl bets but the Patriots will win Super Bowl LII in a very competitive game.

Super Bowl LII Pick: Eagles +4.5


Enjoyed this post?
Subscribe to Baltimore Gridiron Report via RSS Feed or E-mail and receive daily news updates from us!

Submit to Digg  Stumble This Story  Share on Twitter  Post on Facebook  Post on MySpace  Add to del.icio.us  Bark It Up  Submit to Reddit  Fave on Technorati

Leave a Reply